FORT MYERS, Fla. – As he got comfortable in his locker at the Red Sox’ Player Development Complex on Saturday, J.D. Drew faced a mix of questions about the coming year and beyond.
There was the issue of whether his hamstring is healthy (he suggested that it had “finally turned the corner”). There was the question of how he might perform in the fifth and final season of the $70 million pact he signed with Boston prior to the 2007 season (not an issue, the right fielder noted). And then, based on his recent musings, there were also questions about whether the 2011 season might be the right-fielder’s last.
The 35-year-old did not have a definite vision of his future.
“Me and my wife have talked a little bit, but more than anything, just going into this offseason, it was trying to get myself healthy and try to get ready to roll for this season,” said Drew. “As the year unfolds, we’ll have maybe some more answers.”
But while Drew’s future in the game is uncertain, one matter is fairly clear. If everything goes according to plan for the Red Sox, Drew will not be their starting right fielder by the time 2012 rolls around. That responsibility, team officials expect and hope, will fall to Ryan Kalish.
The 22-year-old (he turns 23 on March 28) impressed with his skills, approach and baseball IQ during his earlier-than-anticipated trial over the final two months of the 2010 season. He hit .252 with a .305 OBP, .405 slugging mark and .710 OPS, swatting four homers while – somewhat amazingly – leading the Sox in stolen bases with 10.
His combination of speed and power are noteworthy. Certainly, it’s no stretch to imagine him being able to clear 20 homers and 20 steals in a single season.
But one projection system had even bigger visions for the young outfielder. Baseball Info Solutions, which publishes the Bill James Handbook, projected that if Kalish spent the 2011 season in the majors, he would hit .271 with a .340 OBP, .452 slugging mark, 20 homers … and 43 steals.
To give some context to that stolen base total, the same projection system pegged Carl Crawford for 42 steals in 2011.
So, it is worth asking, is such a high total of steals possible for Kalish? For that matter, if he’s capable of that rarefied air, could he get to 50 steals in a season?
Interestingly, Kalish – who spent the offseason training at Athletes’ Performance to develop both his speed and his power, a combined program that put him on a unique schedule at the facility – did not shy from the possibility. In fact, he said that he had mused about it.
“It can be done. It’s hard, but it could be done,” said Kalish. “I feel like hopefully just learning how to steal more and more at the right times, you’ve got to start to learn to steal off of guys with quicker times to home. Spending some time around Ellsy and Crawford this spring should hopefully help me do that.
“I don’t have any goals as far as how many I’d like to have, but that would be a nice number,” he added. “This year I’ve been thinking about that number a little, but I’m not going to be checking. If it happens, it happens.”
It would represent an atypical spike in steals should the outfielder reach such a lofty goal given his career to this point. Even so, throughout his career, he has been a highly efficient base stealer, and his thefts total jumped in 2010.
Here are Kalish’s year-by-year stolen base and games played totals:
2006 (Rookie Ball, Short-Season Lowell: 17 games, 2 SB, 0 CS
2007 (Short-Season Lowell): 23 games, 18 SB, 3 CS
2008 (Low-A Greenville, Hi-A Lancaster): 114 games, 19 SB, 4 CS
2009 (Hi-A Salem, Double-A Portland): 135 games, 21 SB, 6 CS
2010 (Double-A Portland, Triple-A Pawtucket, Major Leagues): 131 games, 35 SB, 4 CS
Throughout his minor league career, he has been nothing short of impressive on the bases.
“He can run, he gets good jumps and he also is fearless,” said Sox roving baserunning instructor Tom Goodwin. “Those are three good qualities that you’re going to get in an above-average base stealer, somebody who can put up a big, round 30 to 50.
“I would never say that he couldn’t do it. It would depend on, how he grows and as time goes by, where he’s going to hit in the lineup and what kind of hitter he’s going to become.”
Kalish noted that he was timed in the 40 just once as a high school football player, and that he ran a 4.40. Given his training since then, he believes it possible that he could be faster now than he was then.
Even so, he is much more physical than the typically lithe base stealer. For that reason, a couple of talent evaluators considered it more realistic that he might steal in the neighborhood of 20-30 steals per season towards the start of his big league career, before added muscle would result in him gaining more power but sacrificing some of his speed and, hence, steals.
Even so, it’s a tantalizing hypothetical to consider. After all, if Kalish achieved the half-century mark, that could create a fascinating dynamic in the Sox’ outfield.
Jacoby Ellsbury surpassed 50 steals in both 2008 and 2009. Crawford, who stole 47 bases last year, has gotten more than halfway to 100 in five different seasons. That being the case, if Kalish did develop into a player capable of 50 steals, the Sox would have three outfielders who were all capable of reaching that total.
Only 13 teams in major league history have featured as many as two players who stole 50 or more bases; of those, just two – the 1980 Padres (Jerry Mumphrey, Gene Richards, Ozzie Smith) and the 1976 Athletics (Don Baylor (!), Bert Campaneris, Bill North) – featured three players to reach the 50-steal plateau.
Never in major league history has a team had three outfielders reach the big five-oh. Kalish liked the idea of exploring uncharted territory.
“We’ll try to do that eventually,” said Kalish. “That would be something pretty special if we could all do that. If it happens, it happens. It would be crazy.”
That pursuit won’t happen this year, with Kalish slated to start the year in Triple-A, barring an injury to Drew, Ellsbury or Crawford. GM Theo Epstein has said that he wants to see the prospect get at least a half-season in Pawtucket.
Even so, with Drew likely in his last year as Boston’s starting right-fielder, it is a reminder that the addition of Kalish to the mix could create for some noteworthy dynamics.
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