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25 Şubat 2011 Cuma

A year later, prospect Ryan Westmoreland's comeback moves forward

FORT MYERS, Fla. – Thwack.

It is a familiar sound, so common in spring training that it barely registers.

Thwack.

It is the sound of ball hitting wood in batting practice. It is a skill that is taken for granted in this setting, where it represents routine for dozens and dozens of Red Sox major leaguers and minor leaguers.

Thwack.

A year ago, the sound created by Ryan Westmoreland was a bit different than his peers. There was an explosiveness at the point of contact when barrel met ball, a sound that separated the 19-year-old from other players, a noise that turned scouts’ heads and helped to establish him as the top prospect in the system. 

Thwack.

Westmoreland was destroying the ball in spring training in 2010, taking rounds of batting practice that would leave team hitting instructors shaking their heads, knowing they were witnessing the start of something special.

Thwack.

Then the prospect’s ascent was altered dramatically, shockingly. It was roughly a year ago that the signs started to emerge that would change the course not just of his career but of his life. The symptoms started appearing – the odd tingling in his right thumb and pinkie, the feeling that the baseball was like a medicine ball, that his bat was like a “big tree log” even after he’d switched to a lighter piece of wood – last February.

Thwack.

Those were the first signs that led to the discovery of a cavernous malformation of cells in his brain stem, which forced him to leave spring training to see specialists on March 4 and to undergo surgery – potentially life-threatening – to remove the mass of cells that had started bleeding into his brain on March 16.

The surgery was successful, but because it took place on the area that controls motor function, it had expected consequences. Westmoreland spent weeks and months re-learning functions that nearly everyone, let alone an athlete, takes for granted: breathing, standing, walking.

It is a process that remains ongoing. The 20-year-old (he turns 21 on April 27) is still trying to “re-learn” (the operative word guiding much of the rehab process) how to tie his shoes.

“For something simple to be so hard makes people take things less for granted,” said Westmoreland.

Thwack.

Some fine motor skills remain elusive. There are the challenges of tying shoes. He is still rehabbing from Bell’s palsy, a condition that created partial paralysis of the left side of his face and that still affects his speech (though that has been less and less the case over time). There are other small differences in a handshake or high five that point to what he has been through.

His vision also remains a work in progress – while he can hit without sunglasses inside a dim batting cage, the glare of the outdoors requires him to wear a thick pair of sunglasses. For a baseball player, vision is crucial, as the ability to detect the spin of a baseball out of a pitcher’s hand is the first element needed to achieve the coordination of fast-twitch muscles to impact a baseball.

And yet while he continues to work towards restoring himself to his pre-surgery condition, there have been glimpses of what might be possible this spring.

The most important aspect of his recovery, the assurance that he will enjoy a normal quality of life, has been accomplished. And now, Westmoreland – who was seen at the Spaulding Rehabilitation Hospital in Boston for a routine checkup on Tuesday – is pushing past that to see whether he can regain not just normalcy but the exceptional athleticism needed to compete on a baseball field against world-class talents.

“At the beginning, it was all about his health and well-being and hoping he was going to enjoy that normal quality of life and just being a happy kid able to do normal everyday things,” said Sox farm director Mike Hazen. “I think we’ve progressed beyond that point now. There is obviously nothing set in stone to know what we’re dealing with overall, but we’ve seen him move beyond that point, which is a great thing.

“We’re making that transition from everyday life, which seems to be nearing completion, to redeveloping as a baseball player, which we still have some ways to go, but we’re continuing to move towards as well.”

Thwack.

A big part of that, of course, is batting practice. Westmoreland takes it three times a week – there is little question that he hungers to take it more – where he is once again making regular, hard contact. For the most part, the sound of the ball and bat blends in with what might be heard from other players in his batting practice group or in an adjacent hitting cage.

But there are exceptions. Sometimes, the clean contact is replaced by a “plink,” the ball finding an area off the barrel and dribbling away, a reminder that he is still working back towards his prior balance and timing. But on a few occasions, the other sound has come back, the one that put Westmoreland on the map as one of the top prospects in the game.

As of Saturday, that had translated once to the most tangible of outcomes on the baseball field. The moment came just a little while before droves of Sox players began crowding into Fort Myers for spring training.

Westmoreland, who had been working out at the Sox’ Player Development Complex since Jan. 7, received a welcome reminder when he turned on a pitch a couple weeks ago and sent it over the chain link fence of Field 1. The ball bounced and rolled into water.

Chip Simpson, the Sox’ rehab coordinator whom Westmoreland describes as having been “pretty much my brother” through his recoveries from three surgeries, yelled to pitcher Jennel Hudson to get the ball. When Hudson, who was shagging in the outfield during the batting practice round, hesitated at the prospect of clearing the 10-foot fence, Simpson took matters into his own hands.

He sprinted from near home plate to the fence, hopped it, ran into the water and retrieved the ball. Both he and the ball were soaking when he returned to Westmoreland with a keepsake that now sits in the rehab coordinator’s office.

“I’ll definitely always remember that,” said Westmoreland. “That trajectory, I’d almost forgotten what that felt like. Right off the bat when I hit it, I said, ‘That’s gone.’ I actually threw the bat and started walking down the first base line. It was nice to get that little mental picture.

“I remember in Lowell when I played and I hit one, I would know right off the bat that I got one. It was cool. That was the first time I’ve gotten that feeling since then. It was nice to get that little picture, to see the trajectory and you’d be able to say that ball is out,” he added. “It was really big for me. It’s great hitting line drives up the middle. But that feeling of hitting the ball out, which I’ve done in the past – I’m not saying I’m a big power guy – but to be able to hit the ball out of the park for the first time since last February was special.”

MANAGING THE MONOTONY

Progress is not always so glaringly apparent.

The process of Westmoreland’s efforts to resume his baseball career features the sort of repetition that can easily be viewed as painstaking. It is a common refrain among players who are rehabbing that they can’t wait to get out of Fort Myers, that they feel as if there’s nothing to do.

Westmoreland, who owns a condo in the city, has a different perspective.

“It’s actually not too bad,” he observed. “Anything is better than a hospital bed. That’s where I was for too long.”

When he got out of surgery, his recovery was measured in leaps as his senses of sight and hearing returned. Now, the advances on and off the field are less obvious, which is why the Sox chart Westmoreland’s work every day so that they can measure his progress over the span of weeks and thus offer a reminder of the steady progress that has occurred.

Westmoreland does not take the process for granted as he had when recovering from a pair of previous surgeries (one in 2008 to repair a torn labrum, another in 2009 to help heal his broken collarbone). He embraces what must be done.

“Rehab used to be go in, do your shoulder work, try to get out of there,” he said. “Now it’s a complete 360. I feel like it’s something I want to go through everyday. I want to get better. Doing things not to their full potential, that’s going to hurt me and so I just give my all everyday and that’s how I’m going to get back. It’s not recovering from a broken bone. That’s going to heal itself. I’ve got to work at it.”

That was true in the hospital, where his activities were almost unchanging on a day-to-day basis, as well as in Fort Myers, where he went to commence baseball activities in the fall, roughly six months removed from the surgery.

He was able to resume weight lifting aggressively in the last few months, and the outfielder is now physically robust. At roughly 6-foot-3 and about 212-215 pounds, his physique is again the hard-chiseled one of an athlete, a testament to the tireless work he has invested to make up for the lost strength and weight while he was in a hospital bed. He notes proudly that he has less body fat and more lean mass than he did pre-surgery.

Now that his rehab is taking place outdoors, he has been able to commence a number of undertakings that would have been impossible in another setting. The Sox try to challenge him with new activities, as when the high school soccer star kicked a ball for the first time since his surgery a couple weeks ago.

In terms of baseball activities, hitting is the area that feels most natural. That explains why he felt comfortable enough to achieve his most recent milestone.

Westmoreland started taking batting practice on the field not just with the small group of eight or nine fellow rehabbers with whom he’s been working since the fall, but in the large packs of minor leaguers who are in Fort Myers for spring training. He had been anxious about the discomfort – both his own and that of his teammates – and potential embarrassment of looking different than other players.

No longer.

“I didn’t know if I was comfortable in front of the other guys because I didn’t want to fail and have them see me. But certainly the biggest milestone to date is getting out there with the team, not getting any exceptions just because I went through what I did,” he said. “I’m out there just like any other guy taking batting practice. I feel like I’m holding my own.

“When I was uncomfortable, it was really being afraid to fail and to have everybody see me and just feel not a part of the team. I’m completely comfortable now. People know what happened. If they don’t, somebody does and is going to tell them. They’re not going to point fingers and laugh.

“If I fail at something, it’s because I had brain surgery. Guys understand that now. I don’t ever go out and shy away from doing anything. I’m not afraid of anything. I feel comfortable around the coaches, the players and pretty much everyone that can see me.”

He takes one-handed flips as well as batting practice fastballs thrown by minor league hitting coordinator Victor Rodriguez. There have been no breaking balls, nor have there been the sort of fastballs that Westmoreland will ultimately have to handle if he wants to be ready for games.

That said, Westmoreland suggests that his swing just clicked back into place once he received the green light to hit. He has seen video of himself swinging, and has been “pleasantly surprised” with how he looks.

He is not yet at the point where he is receiving instruction about mechanics, as the Sox are simply letting Westmoreland find his own comfort zone with his swing. For now, that means embracing a line drive stroke. Power – the one home run notwithstanding – can come later.

“Last year, you’d have the rounds where you’d feel good and wait for that inside pitch and try to hit it over the fence,” said Westmoreland. “For me, I’ve come to terms with the fact that I’m not going to be able to do that right now. I’m just looking to hit the ball hard.

“If there are guys who are hitting 400 foot jacks and I’m hitting line drives up the middle, that’s fine with me. I know that my strength continuing to improve is going to lead to more one day. I’m just trying to make sure that the mechanics of my swing are sound, that all the little things I’m doing are right before I take that step, before I start trying to hit balls a mile.”

In other areas, he continues to work to regain his athleticism. He feels the progress (“I can see that’s a big step”) that he has made with his running and speed, even though he acknowledges that there is ground to make up.

He is still rebuilding his throwing arm as well, though it would be difficult to undersell the progress that he has made in that regard, particularly given the point at which he started.

“The first time throwing, I couldn’t even get it 10 feet. I was like, ‘Uh-oh,’” he said. “Now I’m throwing about 120 feet pretty easily. I remembered a long time before, having a great arm before the labrum surgery in high school. [Throwing 120 feet] was a nice, healthy reminder of where I used to be.”

But he wants – and is striding towards – more than reminders.

A GOAL THAT REQUIRES PATIENCE

Westmoreland is realistic. His maturity about the process, particularly given that he is just 20, is startling. There is no sense of self-pity, a pointless emotion. There is only purpose.

And Westmoreland does not hedge when outlining his goals for where he hopes the process that started on March 16, 2010, will end. The Sox are the ones who articulate the goal of getting him into a professional game. Westmoreland speaks about getting to the game’s highest level.

“It still is my dream to get to the big leagues,” said Westmoreland. “I’m glad to tell my story. Hopefully it’s not nearly over yet. Hopefully it will end with me being in the big leagues. But I’ll find that out when that opportunity comes.”

During the initial months of his rehab, he did not stay far from baseball. He would make appearances at Fenway Park, in Portland, in Pawtucket at games.

But then, he resumed baseball activities and spent a few days working out with the Lowell Spinners and then the Greenville Drive (a team that featured several of his teammates from the 2009 Spinners club) near the end of last season.

By the time he got to Fort Myers to work out and watch games during the Florida Instructional League, the desire to play had become a longing.

“It’s amazing. Watching the game in instructs, I was like…,’” Westmoreland said with a sigh. “That’s when it really hit me. Greenville was a little different because I was more in the stands. But instructs, I was right out here [by the field] and I was like, ‘God, I just want to get in there and play.’

“I had to take a deep breath and say, alright, I’m not ready to play right now. That’s cool. I just want to play again and try to forget it. It’s tough going out there and watching games. But at the same time, if you realize what you went through, you’re like, okay, I just had whatever happened and I’m just taking it slow.”

There is no timetable for when Westmoreland will play in a game. That can only come when his physical skills will match the pace of the game, when he is able to duck out of the way of a stray high-and-tight fastball even when he is anticipating a breaking ball.

The absence of target dates would be difficult for any athlete to accept, and Westmoreland is no different. He became an elite player because he was able to blitz through the setting and fulfillment of goals.

The challenge of remaining patient becomes all the greater thanks to the steady, well-intentioned questions from friends and well-wishers who are struck by how healthy he looks. He estimates that he has encountered the inquiry roughly “a zillion” times: When are you going to play in a game?

He has had to accept that he cannot answer that question with a specific date or even a month or year. In the interview, he mentions that he is not looking to a return in April, or for that matter August or September. He is just trying to make progress so that at some point he will be ready to play.

“I want to smooth everything out: smooth out my swing, smooth out some of that running, smooth out the throwing. I’m not trying to set a goal and say, ‘I want to play by April.’ If it comes, it comes. If not, I’m ready to wait,” he said. “I know what I need to work on, and it’s not like I’m expecting to play in April. I’m expecting to play when I’m able to play.

“It’s very difficult, but I realize that I can’t rush anything. I don’t want to go out there and be premature, start trying to play and fail miserably. I want to play when I’m ready. When that opportunity comes, I’ll know that I’m completely ready to play. I’ll hopefully be successful on the field.”

Patience has been easier because progress has been regular. At the time of the surgery, no one could say with any certainty whether Westmoreland would ever again be able to walk, let alone knock a ball over a fence in batting practice.

That he is doing so less than one year removed from brain surgery underscores how much he has already accomplished. That, in turn, allows him to be patient about what can still be done.

“It hasn’t even been a year and I’m already doing things that no doctor really said I’ll be doing,” said Westmoreland. “If I just keep at this pace, just take it day by day and not look ahead to this August or September, it will happen when it’s meant to be. I’ve accepted that. I’m definitely not trying to rush anything.”

But, perhaps just as importantly, he has not had to rule out anything. His attempt to come back from this form of brain surgery to play baseball has no precedent.

As such, no one can say definitively that he will ever set foot on a baseball field in a professional game. But based on the progress of his recovery to this point, no one can say he can’t. And if he continues the trajectory that he has traveled, the odds will continue to shift in his favor.

“We don’t look at the future from a big picture standpoint. We can’t really. We don’t know what’s out there. So we try to push him and he tries to push himself every single day,” said Sox farm director Mike Hazen. “We don’t know how the final chapter is going to play out here, but as long as we keep seeing that steady progress, we’re going to remain optimistic that this thing is going to play out in the end and he’s going to be back to playing professional baseball.”

ONE YEAR LATER

Westmoreland only wanted one tattoo. He was inked after he suffered a broken collarbone while making a spectacular catch while crashing into the fence in Lowell.

And so he got the marking. Inside an oval, a baseball player is swinging a bat, the words “St. Christopher” above him and “Protect Me” below. Above the oval is the image of a broken fence, a nod to the fact that he actually smashed part of the fence at LeLacheur Park when making his collarbone-breaking grab. Below it is the word “Livestrong,” the signature motto of seven-time Tour de France winner Lance Armstrong.

That was meant to be Westmoreland’s only tattoo.

“I said, I’m never getting a tattoo again unless something really serious happens,” he chuckled. “Sure enough, six months later, something really serious happened.”

And so, last summer, he got another tattoo with a date: March 16, 2010, the day he underwent brain surgery.

“I think it’s a good, memorable thing to look down at and be proud of: The day that I survived,” he said. “It means a lot. … I would get [another] one maybe if I debut again. That would be it, I hope. That would complete the whole thing. I’m just hoping for that day.”

In three weeks, he will get together with his parents, Ron and Robin Westmoreland, as well as his girlfriend, Charlene Colameta, at an Outback Steakhouse, a nod to the fact that the group also went to Outback last March 15, the night before the procedure.

It will be the sort of get-together that attests to the success of the surgery and rehab process, to the fact that Westmoreland is a normal 20-year-old able to live a normal life. He enjoys his friends and family, goes to the movie, golfs (badly) in his free time and goes fishing every day, joking that he suffered the greatest embarrassment of his life when his big catch last week was a fish that was no more than a couple inches in length.

“I wanted it to jump off the hook,” he admitted.

But there is also a resonance to the idea that it will have been a year since the budding Sox star underwent a surgery that was terrifying for him, his family and friends as well as his baseball organization a year ago. Westmoreland, whose journey is being documented by ESPN’s E:60, will be accompanied by a camera crew that day, “just to show where I was, how far I came one year later. I’m excited for all of that.

“One year later seems like a long time, but for me,” he added, “it’s just another day and I’m ready for the next one.”

As for Westmoreland’s career, though he has not played in a game since Sept. 2009, and his developmental as a baseball player was interrupted, time is not his enemy. Had he fulfilled his scholarship commitment to Vanderbilt instead of signing with the Sox out of high school for a $2 million bonus after being drafted in the fifth round, Westmoreland wouldn’t have been eligible for the draft until this coming summer.

He is young in life, and young in baseball years.

“I constantly remind myself and people constantly remind me of how young I am,” he said. “I realize that I’m only 20. For me to have already made this progress at the age of 20 gives me a lot of confidence that I’m going to get back, that I’m still going to be fairly young if not a normal age for a big leaguer to have.

“It’s nice being young right now. I certainly don’t mind it. It’s nice being reminded that I’m young and that I have a long way to go, not to let my age affect how I do my rehab.”

He is doing everything in his power to come back, even as he admits that the ultimate destination of his comeback path remains unknowable.

“Whether I don’t make it or I do,” he said, “the fact that I’m trying it, I’m doing things that people didn’t think were possible, whether I get back or not, whether I get to the big leagues or not, I’ve already come a tremendous way.”

But he wants more.

Thwack.

It is the sound of possibility.


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As the second half looms, C's face five questions going forward

Put yourself back in October and try this scenario on for size:

Heading into the All-Star break, the Celtics will win 40 games and have the best record in the Eastern Conference. Paul Pierce and Ray Allen will play every game and Kevin Garnett will avoid catastrophic injury. Rajon Rondo will continue to develop, Kendrick Perkins will come back stronger — and maybe even better than ever than before — and Glen Davis will develop into a top sixth man.

Not bad.

But there are concerns heading into the second half of the season. The schedule lacks high-profile games, but is back-loaded and contains a number of back-to-backs. Due to injuries, the second unit has not developed any kind of consistency and their playoff rotation remains a mystery.

The Celtics have positioned themselves to make a strong postseason run, but there is more to do between now and April 16 when the playoffs begin. Here are five key questions that will be answered in the season’s unofficial second half following the All-Star break.

WILL THE CELTICS MAKE A MOVE?

Almost certainly. As late as early February, the Celtics looked like a team that would stand pat. They would wait for their injured players to return and get the same trade deadline-boost in talent without having to give up any assets.

That changed on Feb. 6 when Marquis Daniels crumpled to the floor in a scary incident that left him with a bruised spinal cord and important medical questions to answer about his long-term health.

Neither Daniels nor the Celtics know the full extent of his condition yet, and that is the first of many complicating factors in their decision-making. One thing is clear: The Celtics need help on the wing, especially a backup to play behind Paul Pierce. Daniels was that player and he may be again, but no one knows for sure yet.

The trade deadline is Feb. 24 and the Celtics are expected to be active. Whether they act is another matter. Once the deadline clears, several veteran players are expected to be bough out of their contracts including Troy Murphy and Rip Hamilton, two players the Celtics reportedly have their eye on.

If the Celtics add a veteran free agent someone would have to go from their 15-man roster. Team president Danny Ainge won’t touch his core players and he would rather not give up any of his younger assets either, but that’s the position he’s in with so much uncertainty swirling around Daniels.

One name who would make a ton of sense is Cleveland’s Anthony Parker. The 35-year-old veteran knows how to play and can still knock down open looks on the perimeter. He’s in the final year of a contract with a $2.85 million salary for the year. Because of the Celtics’ salary situation, it would take a combination of younger players and maybe a draft pick to acquire a player like Parker, who will certainly have interest around the league.

There are no easy solutions for Ainge at the deadline, but it’s hard to imagine the Celtics going forward with so much uncertainty.

CAN THEY STAY HEALTHY?

This is the biggest question of all. The Celtics have lost over 164 games due to injury this season, and as they head into the break they are waiting on Delonte West, Shaquille O’Neal, Semih Erden, Jermaine O’Neal and Daniels to recover from their ailments.

“Stay healthy,” Kevin Garnett said when asked about the second half of the season. “Healthy, healthy, healthy.” 

West and Erden are expected to return soon after the break and they will provide valuable depth. Shaq is an unknown. His Achilles injury has lingered longer than everyone expected and Perkins has re-emerged as the starting center in his absence.

Jermaine O’Neal, on the other hand, is a huge X-factor. If he can come back from knee surgery and provide backup center minutes, he could have a huge impact on the second unit’s defense. Even in small doses, O’Neal was a difference-maker on the defensive end.

Their health dictates every other question they have and it’s paramount that Pierce, Allen, Garnett and Rondo stay relatively injury-free over the last two months.

HOW MUCH IS THE TOP SEED WORTH?

According to various respected forecasting models, the Heat remain the favorites to emerge from the pack and gain the top seed in the Eastern Conference. Either way, it won’t come easy for either team.

The Celtics have positioned themselves to get one of the top two seeds in the East, which would give them homecourt advantage through the first two rounds of the playoffs. While no one will catch San Antonio for the top overall seed, the Celtics also have one eye on the Lakers should the two meet again in the finals.

Homecourt is important and avoiding a second-round matchup with Chicago is another inducement to compete for the top spot. But, at what cost?

The Celtics go out west after the break and then return home for a two-week stretch of five games. That’s when it starts to get hard. From March 13-April 13, the Celtics will play 19 games in 31 days with six sets of back-to-backs, five of them on the road.

There are road games at San Antonio, Chicago and Miami and trips to New Orleans and Atlanta, as well, but the majority of the opposition will come from the vast NBA middle class.

It won’t be glamorous, but this will be the Celtics most arduous stretch of the schedule and will define just how important getting homecourt really is to them. Doc Rivers has maintained that there’s no reason to sit his veteran stars if they’re healthy and they have held up remarkably well during the season, especially Allen and Pierce.

But nothing, not even homecourt, is more important than health.

CAN THE SECOND UNIT DEVELOP?

As Rivers recently noted, the second unit he envisioned back in camp has not played a single minute together. The plan back then was to employ almost a platoon-style rotation with 10 players making up two distinct teams.

If it all comes together, Rivers would employ a second unit of West, Nate Robinson, Davis and Shaq with support coming from Von Wafer, Erden and possibly Jermaine O’Neal.

West holds the key because of his ability to handle the ball and run the team. That would allow Robinson to shift over into a scoring guard and provide a potentially nasty backcourt pressure defense.

The other issue is Shaq who will have to adjust to a reserve role. With 1,206 NBA games under his large belt, Shaq has come off the bench exactly nine times in his career. He has maintained that he will do whatever is asked of him, but it will still be an adjustment.

Davis is the other key figure in the bench’s development. He has had a breakthrough season as a sixth man who can score and play both frontcourt positions. Davis has struggled with his consistency at times, but he remains a potential game-changer every time he steps on the floor. 

“Baby’s been pretty good,” Rivers said. “He’s had his ups and downs, but I would say far more ups. I’ve been very happy with Baby over the year.” 

The talent is there, and so is the experience, for Rivers to develop a top-flight second unit, but the clock is working against him.

WILL RAJON RONDO BE READY?

One of the underlying subplots of this season has been Rivers willingness to experiment with Rajon Rondo to get his point guard ready for the playoffs.

Rivers has tried various things, including using Rondo at the end of games on final possessions, something he did only occasionally last season. It worked against Philadelphia when he hit Garnett with a gorgeous lob for the game-winner, and it didn’t earlier in the season when Rondo was left to launch a 20-footer against the Mavericks that badly missed the mark.

Additionally, Rivers has encouraged Rondo to take more long-range jump shots to tighten up opposing defenses and Rondo has made those shots at a career-best mark. He has also challenged him to get the free throw line, which has resulted in some encouraging signs such as a recent stretch when he made 19-of-23.

Other experiments have included posting up Rondo at the free throw line to force defenses to play him tight and using him and Robinson in the same backcourt with Rondo playing off the ball.

They know that Rondo will see even more specially designed defenses in the postseason. Few teams can play them effectively as the Lakers, but they will all try to some degree.

Rondo proved that he can take over a series last year in the playoffs. He may have to reach even greater heights if the Celtics are going to reach their ultimate goal.


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Can Josh Beckett bounce back? Re-examining his terrible 2010 and what it means going forward

FORT MYERS, Fla. — For most of the offseason, Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford assumed primacy in the rapidly escalating expectations for the Red Sox. Those two provided answers to team needs. But two returning players who loom as question marks may be just as significant.

On Thursday morning, Josh Beckett and John Lackey strolled out of the Sox clubhouse, taking the first steps in what the Sox hope — perhaps even need — to be a year in which they will rebound significantly.

Lackey, of course, struggled to live up to his billing as a top-of-the-rotation starter after coming over on a five-year, $82.5 million deal he signed as a free agent — at the time, the largest contract ever given out by the current Sox ownership group. His 14-11 record and 4.40 ERA at the end of the year were solid, but short of dominant.

Even so, the performance wasn’t alarming to the Sox. The pitcher faced the external challenges of a transition to a new team and division, and the pressure of expectations in doing so. He was healthy for the full season, making 33 starts and pitching a team-leading 215 innings.

Moreover, despite a 5-6 record in the second half, he posted strong numbers: A 3.97 ERA, 7.8 strikeouts per nine innings, a 3.4 strikeout-to-walk rate and a 1.22 WHIP — numbers that stacked up well against his career totals. “John had a better second half than first half,” general manager Theo Epstein noted Thursday. “That’s a sign that he adjusted to his new surroundings in the American League East, and I look forward to a typical John Lackey season.”

Beckett, however, is another matter. There is little solace to be gleaned from any stretch of the season, whether his injury-impaired first half or a second half during which he continued to be tagged. He finished the year having pitched just 127 2/3 innings in 21 starts with a 5.78 ERA.

Of the 147 pitchers who threw at least 100 innings last year, Beckett had the fifth-worst ERA. Opponents had an .848 OPS against him, sixth worst in the majors. Overall, opponents crushed him for a .292 average, .354 OBP and .492 slugging mark.

In many respects, the best things that could have been said about Beckett’s 2010 season were A) that it’s over and B) he took full responsibility for it.

“Josh certainly can do better than he did last year and he knows that,” Epstein said. “It looks like he went out and had a really strong winter, getting in great shape. The big thing is he didn’t hide from the year he had. He took accountability for it. He knows there’s more in there. I wouldn’t bet against him at all.”

Of course, Epstein has little choice in the matter. After all, the Sox made the decision last spring to sign Beckett to a four-year, $72 million extension that begins with the 2011 season. Clearly, the Sox made their bet on Beckett in early 2010, not against him.

But is it realistic to think that the right-hander can bounce back from his depths of 2010? Does history offer grounds for optimism that the right-hander, in his age 31 season, can re-emerge as a reliable pitcher capable of performing at or near an All-Star level? Or was there anything that could offer glimpses of hope from his 2010 season?

WHAT HISTORY SAYS

In the context of 2010 and baseball history, Beckett’s season was abysmal. Boston Herald colleague John Tomase recently examined the history of pitchers at the age of 30 and later who suffered a season like Beckett’s — at least 125 innings, a 5.75 ERA or worse — and noted that of the 66 pitchers who turned in such seasons, all but three were virtually done as effective starters.

The claim was eye-opening, and it suggests that the Sox have every reason to be terrified that their deal with Beckett soon could become an albatross.

That said, one can get a slightly different view of the pitcher’s prospects by changing slightly the pitchers to whom he is being compared. Given that one expects precipitous declines for pitchers as they age, it seems unfair to compare a 30-year-old Beckett to a 39-year-old Al Leiter. Beckett was ostensibly in the middle of his prime last year, rather than well past it.

Moreover, the 125-inning threshold and 5.75 ERA threshold are both somewhat arbitrary. If a pitcher has a terrible, injury-riddled year, an 80-inning season with a 6.00 ERA should probably raise as many red flags as Beckett’s season.

So, suppose one looks at Beckett in the context of starting pitchers in their primes (ages 28-32) who had an ERA+ that was 20 percent or more below league average, and who, in the era of the 162-game schedule, threw at least half a season (81+ innings) but fewer than 162 innings (thereby helping to narrow the field to include pitchers who were dealing with injuries).

Through the 2009 season, there were 64 pitchers who fit into that category. Almost none had Beckett’s pedigree as a top-of-the-rotation pitcher, a reminder of how truly shocking his 2010 flop was.

There were several examples of pitchers who recovered to have at least moderate success after a Beckett-sized flop. Pitchers like Brad Penny, Vicente Padilla and others performed at or near league average in subsequent years. Jim DeShaies had a bad age 31 year, but recovered for a couple seasons as a slightly better-than-average starter. Some, such as Julian Tavarez and Darren Oliver, were shifted to the bullpen and found success there.

Some hurlers were glimpsing the beginning of an injury-riddled end. Mark Mulder, for instance, had a 7.14 ERA over 17 starts as a 28-year-old in 2006. That was basically it for the left-hander, who made just six more appearances over the next two years before retiring.

But there are some noteworthy cases of pitchers who rebounded in spectacular fashion. At the top of the list is Cliff Lee, who went 5-8 with a 6.29 ERA for the Indians in 2007 at age 28. Since then? A Cy Young award, a 48-25 record and 2.98 ERA in the last three seasons.

There are other noteworthy cases that could offer Beckett grounds for optimism. Paul Byrd, for instance, was an All-Star in 1999, suffered a brutal down/injury year in 2000, then had an ERA of 3.94 (ERA+ of 117) over his next four seasons.

Juan Guzman suffered dismal seasons with the Blue Jays as a 27- and 28-year-old but rebounded to lead the AL in ERA at age 29, the first of a few more seasons as an above-average starter.

Mike Scott was 5-11 with a 4.68 ERA (ERA+ of 71) as a 29-year-old, then commenced a four-year run in which he was 86-49 with a 2.93 ERA (121 ERA+) in the next four years, which included a Cy Young season.

John Smiley had a dreadful, injury-riddled age 28 season in 1993, then performed at an All-Star level over his next three seasons. Mark Gubicza recovered from poor age 27 and 28 seasons to resume life as a very effective starter for the Royals. Combustible Braves starter Pascual Perez went 1-13 with a 6.14 ERA (62 ERA+) as a 28-year-old, missed all of his age 29 season, then had a 2.80 ERA (131 ERA+) from ages 30-32.

There are some other fascinating examples of players who recovered from injury-riddled disasters to regain dominance. Hall of Famer Lefty Grove, for instance, had an 8-8 record and 6.50 ERA in 109 innings as a 34-year-old in his first season with the Sox (after a trade from the A’s). But Grove didn’t just bounce back — he led the AL in ERA in four of the next five years, cementing his Cooperstown credentials.

So, that sample set would suggest that there’s a small but important set of pitchers who have recovered from miserable seasons in their primes to achieve either effectiveness or even dominance. For pitchers with Beckett’s record — multiple All-Star appearances, consideration as a top Cy Young candidate — there are more cases of rebounds than downward spirals following years such as the one that he turned in.

ANOTHER LOOK AT 2010, AND FORECASTING 2011

But was there evidence last season to suggest an actual reason why Beckett should be able to exist as one of the pitchers capable of bouncing back?

One can certainly make that case by looking beyond that hideous ERA. Here are a few numbers of note for Beckett in 2010:

— Opponents swung and missed at 8.4 percent of his pitches in 2010, compared to 8.3 percent of his pitches in 2008 and 2009. He still has swing-and-miss stuff.

— Further evidence of that notion: Beckett had 8.2 strikeouts per nine innings last year, third most ever by a pitcher age 28 or older with an ERA+ that was 80 or below. That was only slightly below his career average of 8.5 strikeouts per nine. That further underscores the notion that his stuff separated him from others on the list of infamy.

— His batting average on balls in play was .341, one of the worst marks among pitchers to produce such a brutal ERA. It was easily the worst BABIP of Beckett’s career, almost 50 points worse than the career .294 mark he had through 2009. The mark was also drastically different than the .295 BABIP by the Red Sox pitching staff and the .293 league average.

BABIP is influenced heavily by defense and luck. Pitchers have little control over it. When there’s a significant divergence — as there was for Beckett in 2010 — the expectation should be that the pitcher will move back toward his career norms.

That helps to explain why some of the more advanced statistics — which are meant to account for fluctuations of luck on balls in play and the rate of fly balls clearing the fence for homers — are quite optimistic about Beckett. It also helps to explain why projection systems such as those used in the Bill James Handbook by Baseball Information Solution anticipate a big bounceback for Beckett, with a forecast of a sub-4.00 ERA.

— Those are all reasons for optimism about Beckett’s prospects of rebounding. That said, there are some elements that suggest caution about the pitcher’s future. For instance, his fastball velocity has slipped gradually but steadily since his first year with the Sox, going from 94.7 mph in 2006 to 94.6 mph in 2007, 94.3 mph in both 2008 and 2009 and then falling to 93.5 mph last year.

— Perhaps because of the decline in velocity, he has also showed diminished trust in the pitch. In 2008, according to Fangraphs.com, his fastball was his offering of choice on 66.9 percent of his pitches; that fell to 60.2 percent in 2009 and just 55.2 percent of his pitches in 2010.

CHOOSING TO FORGET

Beckett’s 2010 season was a jarring aberration from his career to that point, both for the pitcher and the Red Sox. And so, the Sox are putting faith in the idea that the glaring, blaring numbers of 2010 did not accurately represent the right-hander.

He has been the team’s Opening Day starter in the last two seasons as well as a key part of the team’s postseason blueprint for success. He remains a huge part of the Sox’ hopes going forward. As significant as the team’s offseason lineup upgrades have been, the performance of the rotation will be at least as significant in determining where the team will end up in the coming season, and Beckett will play an immense role in seeing how closely ambitions and outcomes can align.

All of that means that the Sox are not just hopeful for a bounceback — they will need it. As such, they are engaging in an act of selective memory in hoping that they will get the Beckett of 2007-09, rather than the pitcher whose results fell far short of that standard in 2010.

“We’re for the most part throwing out last year and relying on the greater body of evidence for how we project him going forward,” Epstein said during the offseason. “It’s very important. We’re a different starting rotation with him being anywhere close to what he’s been throughout his career. He’s going to get the ball, and he’s going to pitch big games, and big innings and get big outs for us. So having him be his normal, effective self will mean a lot to this club.”


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